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Super Bowl 50: A Housing Highlight Reel

Thursday, February 4, 2016
by Tom Stachler,ABR,CDPE - Group One Realty Team

Super Bowl

The Super Bowl turns 50 this weekend. To mark the event’s golden anniversary, Census number-crunchers rounded up a collection of facts comparing life back in 1967 to present-day. The play-by-play includes housing stats, which we’ve broken down below.

In 1967…

  • The U.S. population was 197.5 million.
  • The median sales price of a new, single-family Home was just $22,700.
  • The average household size was 3.28 people.
  • Approximately 70 percent of adults lived in a home with their spouse.

In 2016…

  • The U.S. population is 322.8 million—up 63 percent from 1967.
  • The median sales price of a new, single-family home is $282,800.
  • The average household size is 2.54 people.
  • Approximately 50 percent of adults live in a home with their spouse.

Contrasting 1967 and 2016, the median new, single-family home sales price, though not adjusted for inflation, illustrates the rising trajectory housing has taken in the last 50 years. Notably, household size has shrunk by approximately 25 percent (or, in Census measures, nearly 0.75 people). Co-habitation has also taken on new meaning, as more households today are comprised of unmarried partners and singles.

Housing in Super Bowl team cities Charlotte and Denver has seen considerable change in the last 50 years , too.

In Charlotte…

  • In 1995—the year of the Panthers’ first season—the population was 473,355. In 2014, the population of the Charlotte metropolitan area was 2,380,314!
  • In 2014, the median value of an owner-occupied home was $169,400—6.5 percent less than the national median of $181,200.
  • In 2014, the median household income was $53,549—on par with the national median of $53,657.

In Denver…

  • In 1960—the year of the Broncos’ first season—the population was 493,887. In 2014, the population of the Denver metropolitan area was 2,754,258!
  • In 2014, the median value of an owner-occupied home was $276,800—53 percent higher than the national median of $181,200.
  • In 2014, the median household income was $66,870—25 percent higher than the national median of $53,657.

Denver, recently named the hottest housing market of 2016 by Zillow, has seen considerable change in the last 50 years. Home prices in the Mile High City reached new all-time highs at the end of 2015, making it one of just three cities that reported double-digit annual growth last year.

Home prices in Charlotte, recently named the hottest housing market of 2016 by realtor.com, also peaked in 2015. The city and its surrounding areas will continue to experience an influx of new residents this year, thanks to expanding household incomes and a declining unemployment rate.

The hotness factor—and Super Bowl stakes—are high. Who will win the big game? Tapping this highlight reel, the outcome may be too close to call.

ann arbor real estate, broker, realtor, homes, for sale, houses, condos, saline, michigan, listings, inventory, market, report, updates, schools, information, tom, thomas, stachler

 

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Learn more About Carbon Monoxide Protection in your Home

Wednesday, February 3, 2016
by Tom Stachler,ABR,CDPE - Group One Realty Team
Home Safety - Please Review
Carbon monoxide is often referred to as the silent killer. After reading a sobering article after last week's east coast snow storm about carbon monoxide poisoning deaths related to the storm, I thought it was a good time to write on the subject.

Carbon monoxide (CO) is an odorless and colorless gas byproduct of fuels not burning completely (termed incomplete combustion). Appliances and vehicles that burn fuel are potential sources of carbon monoxide.

According to the National Fire Protection Association, the latest data shows that in 2010, fire departments responded to over 80,000 carbon monoxide incidents where elevated levels of CO was found - an average of over 9 calls per hour. This number has increased about 96% since 2003, most likely due to an increased awareness and use of CO detectors.
 
We have compiled several home-related carbon monoxide safety tips and information. For a more information about Carbon Monoxide poisoning from the NFPA, click the following link: NFPA CO
Carbon Monoxide Safety Tips
1) Locations in the home
Recommended placement of CO alarms are: 1) central location outside of each sleeping area and 2) every level of your home.
 
Follow the manufacturer's instructions for placement and mounting height.

*Homes with a heating system that uses a boiler should have a CO alarm installed near the boiler. 
2) Test recommendations and tips
The NFPA recommends to test the units at least once a month. Test your CO alarms at the same time as your smoke detectors.
 
Replace the alarms according to the manufacturer's instructions.
 
Never leave a car or other fuel burning item (lawn mower, snow blower, etc) running inside a garage, even with the door open.

Make sure snow is not covering the exhaust of: cars, gas clothes dryers, furnaces, stoves, and fireplaces.

Leave fireplace dampers open until the fire is out and all coals are cold, and have chimney (including furnace exhaust stacks) and vents cleaned and inspected each fall before the heating season begins.

Do not use a gas or charcoal grills in your home or garage. Do not heat your home with a gas or propane heater that is not connected to a ventilation system. Do not heat your home with your oven.
3) Know the signs of CO poisoning
Some of the signs of CO poisoning can resemble that of a rough morning after a night of partying, or flu or sickness onset.

Signs include everything from headaches and drowsiness to confusion, nausea, shortness of breath, and labored breathing. 

CO poisoning can occur with high doses in a short period of time or smaller doses over a longer period of time. 
 
*If a CO alarm sounds off, move immediately to a fresh air location or by an open window. If anyone is feeling sick, take them to an emergency room or call 911 for help. If no one is sick, call the emergency number for your gas company or heating professional and request that someone come to test your home and fix the CO issue. Do NOT go back into the home until the gas company or heating professional gives an all-clear indication.
We hope these tips have been helpful. Feel free to share it with anyone you think may benefit from it and keep us in mind if you ever need assistance in any realty matter.  
 
tom, stachler, real, estate, one, thomas, stahold, ann arbor, michigan, realty, homes, houses, for, sale, Lease, broker, leading, recommended, inventory, condos, listing, realtor, radon, carbon, monoxide, poisenng, deaths
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OUTLOOK FOR 2016 REAL ESTATE MARKET surrounding Ann Arbor

Thursday, January 21, 2016
by Tom Stachler,ABR,CDPE - Group One Realty Team

 

It was a bit surprising to see 2015 end with a flourish of new sales contracts. We think the jump in sales activity was as much a result of mild weather as increasing buyer activity.  It would not be surprising to see that November and December sales were "borrowed" from the first quarter of 2016. Web site activity and property showings remain at similar levels as last year, which indicate we still have strong buyer interest, equal to the beginning of 2015, but not a wild market that the last 60 days might suggest. Looking back, 2015 was the year we began to move towards a more balanced market, with inventories finally rising across all market segments, faster in the upper-end but still rising in the lower price ranges as well. This past year saw value increases across all price categories, with the strongest gains in the under $250,000 segments. As shown by the Case Shiller Composite Report, the pace of increasing Home values slowed as available homes for sale increased. These national numbers mirror what we have seen throughout Michigan as well. So even with demand remaining strong, the increasing inventories will cause a cooling off of home value increases.  

This year should show similar value gains but on the lower end of the ranges we saw in 2015. The overall trends for 2016 should follow what we saw in 2015, with rising inventories, continued strong buyer demand, but probably not keeping pace with the current increase in inventories.

 

There is still some pent up housing demand yet to be released, probably over multiple years as opposed to all at once. Values are getting close to peak 2005 levels with 90% of Michigan home owners now with equity in their homes, a big jump over the bottom of the recession.

 

The recession delayed many moves, as shown by the chart below, leading up to the recession the average time between moves was 6 years and it moved to 9 during the recession. Time between moves will over time move back closer to the 7 year range, with the difference being pent-up seller demand to be released over the next few years.

The recent regulatory changes known as TRID have not had a big impact so far on getting homes sold and closed. It looks like the new regulations have extended closing dates by about a week or less.  Nonetheless, we still recommend at least 45 days from mortgage application to closing day.

All the current indicators show that housing should remain strong throughout 2016. Interest rates, although expected to rise, will remain low, mortgage lending is easing, employment and wages continue to show positive (although slow) upward trends and there is still pent-up demand from the recession left to be released. All good news. Will the current stock market correction change that? So far it appears the stock market is making the same adjustment we saw in housing in 2015, a correction to an overheated market. The old joke about the stock market is that its declines have predicted 9 of the last 5 recessions.  Certainly a fall in household net worth, whether it is from a drop in stock values or home equites, will have an impact on housing but so far it appears, with possibly the exception of the upper-end markets, the impact will not be major on housing. The momentum of the overall economy, growth of millennial home ownership and remaining pent up housing demand should carry housing through any stock market related slump.

Overall we are going into 2016 will a steady tailwind (or maybe a tail-breeze) which should keep housing moving forward at a steady pace.

Please contact me with any of your real estate needs. I am happy to assist you.

 

 

ann arbor, real estate, one, tom stachler, thomas, stahold, saline, michigan, homes, houses, for sale, Lease, rental, condos, broker, realtor, agent, sales, market, outlook, trends, 

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Consumer Confidence Soars - Homes and Car Reaping the Benefits

Wednesday, January 13, 2016
by Tom Stachler,ABR,CDPE - Group One Realty Team

Consumer confidence surprises many and surged in August, according to today’s report from the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index. The Index rose to 101.5 (following July’s dismal reading of 91.0), beating economists’ projections of 93.3. This month does mark the highest point since November 2007, welcome news to most business owners looking for consumers’ wallets to finally pry open a bit.

The report indicates that consumers are more upbeat, as the years-long choke hold of uncertainty is starting to ease. Consumers are beginning to feel better about the near future, but universally, income expectations did not improve (perhaps just having a job is an improvement for many Americans). Those who viewed jobs as “plentiful” did increase from 19.9% in July to 21.9% in August. Those persons who viewed jobs as “hard to get” decreased from 27.4% in July to 21.9% in August.

But didn’t the stock market crash?

Recent stock market madness has many feeling uneasy this week, but shouldn’t. First, the opening sequence was rough following China’s market which began to correct, and should be good in the long run as their manipulation of their currency has hurt the global economy for years (I’m sure you’ve heard Trump mention that a few times before).

Second, most retirement accounts are most likely comprised of stocks you’ll hold for years, so the people most impacted by the fluctuation are day traders who buy and sell several times in a day, not over a lifetime – they’ll rebound.

Third, the turmoil will hopefully be offset by the plummeting in oil prices currently trading under $40/barrel, leaving cash in consumers’ pockets (along with more optimism)!

In July, new Home sales rebounded, although new starts and permits are down, and existing home sales did rise for the third consecutive month, leaving low inventory levels and affordability as the remaining housing challenges. Auto sales have also been steadily improving for months as lending conditions loosen, albeit slightly.

Consumers are consistently hearing more positive news, which makes it slightly easier to open their wallets, so business owners, rejoice and everyone smile ! The economic crash has been over for a bit, but consumers’ mentality is still catching up as we all recover together. 

 

ann arbor real estate, saline, Michigan, homes, houses, sold, broker, realtor, Rent, condo, realty, pricing, confidence, consumer, price, index, tom, stachler, thomas

 

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Cities with the Biggest Rent Increases

Monday, January 11, 2016
by Tom Stachler,ABR,CDPE - Group One Realty Team

Top 25 Cities with the Largest Rent Increases

Families are facing much bigger rent checks this year — especially those living in many cities in the South and West.

Rent prices have been rising across the country, but rents for single-family homes in these two parts of the country increased the most in the last year, according to recent reports.

“The biggest increases were in the areas where the housing market which had been most depressed,

The steepest rent hikes were in Cape Coral/Fort Myers, Florida, with the average rent increasing nearly 24% in the third quarter, compared over the same time last year. In Sacramento, rents went up almost 18%.

7 of the top ten cities with the largest rent increases were in Florida and California.

Strong job growth, increased foreign Buying activity and a growing Millennial population has helped push rents up in California.

Millennials want to remain mobile and don’t know if they have economic stability yet. They may have to move relatively quickly and they’ve learned from the recent past that you can’t necessarily sell their Home as easily as they once did.

 

Click the link below to learn more on the subject and see the 25 cities with the largest rental increases.

To view the original article, click here: http://money.cnn.com/2015/10/19/pf/cities-largest-rent-increases/index.html?iid=Lead

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Some Essential Tips for Winterizing Your Home

Sunday, January 10, 2016
by Tom Stachler,ABR,CDPE - Group One Realty Team

 

Winterizing your Home

Winter HomeThe snow is falling, the fire is roaring and all your daily worries begin to melt away as you sip on a piping hot cup of tea. This is probably what you’d like to be doing during a winter storm, but things like failing HVAC systems, frozen pipes and clogged chimneys can turn your home from cozy to chaotic, all in the drop of a hat (or tree limb). To avoid annoying (and occasionally dangerous) winter related problems, here are eight essential steps to keep you happy and your house healthy:

#1 Seal windows and doors.

Everyone hates a draft--especially in the morning. Having carefully sealed windows and doors is imperative or helpful to keeping the cold air where it belongs: outside. Before winter weather hits, double-check the seals around your home to ensure they’re not leaking warm air. Also, if you have the time (and budget), look into having your doors and windows re-sealed with weather-stripping.

If you’re in search of a quick fix, old blankets or other thick linens placed under doors will work as a temporary solution. Perhaps Your local home improvement store will also carry a window insulation kit to help stop leaks (if you’re into DIY projects). Try checking the drywall and exterior of your home for any holes and re-caulking them is a great way to give your home an additional edge.

#2 Check your heating, ventilation, air conditioning (HVAC) system.

When was the last time you serviced your HVAC system? Since you don’t want your heating to dip-out during a winter storm, it’s important to make sure your current system is in good shape. Normal HVAC upkeep includes: filter changes, pipe/connection inspections and thermostat tests (especially if you have a smart system). Additionally, if there are issues with the wiring or face of the machine, it’s time to invest in repairs for the thermostat. Unless you have extensive experience repairing HVAC systems, it’s best to leave these repairs up to a professional.

#3 Clean chimney.

Before you build that big holiday fire in the family fireplace, make sure to have it professionally cleaned. (And by “it,” we mean the fireplace and the chimney.) Weather damage, shifting foundations and creosote buildup can lead to some pretty serious problems if ignored. Again, because of the potential cost of a do-it-yourself inspection, it’s highly advised that you have a professional inspect and clean your chimney.

#4 Inspect the roof, gutters and downspouts.

Before winter weather hits, it’s always a good idea to have your roof inspected by a professional. If any holes, leaks, or missing tiles/shingles are discovered, it’s important to have the problem fixed immediately. Also make sure your roof is properly insulated-- a lack of insulation will increase your heating bill if left unchecked.

Downspouts and gutters systems also need a thorough check to prepare for snow and ice. Gutters clogged with leaves or dirt prevent moisture from running through your system. Instead, precipitation begins to collect en-masse--causing serious gutter and siding damage. To avoid gutter issues, make sure you have them cleaned before the next winter storm.

#5 Insulate your pipes.

If you have any exposed pipes, now is the time to insulate them. Use foam, newspapers, or anything insulated (be careful, some pipes become hot and can cause fires if they’re in contact with something flammable) and wrap the pipe using duct tape to secure the covering. Also make sure that any sprinkler systems or pipes leading to a pool are insulated and turned off. Any outdoor faucets should be insulated and covered for the winter as well.

#6 Prepare the yard.

To avoid your yard becoming a springtime mud pit, take steps to keep it maintained throughout the winter. This includes: trimming trees/bushes, putting away furniture and planters, as well as periodically shoveling snow and ice away. If you need help getting rid of winter precipitation, you can always hire a snow removal service to help.

#7 Put the ceiling fan in reverse.

To keep your home warm, another preparatory step is to reverse the circulation of your ceiling fan. Doing so allows the cold air to be pushed to the ceiling, while the warm air is forced back down into the living room. When spring comes around you can always change the circulation back, but utilizing this step gives you more warmth for less money--that’s a win-win.

#8 Keep the heater temperature down.

Modern heaters are great (no hauling/splitting wood, no severe fire hazards and they actually heat your home), but they don’t have to run constantly to do their job. Try dropping the temperature at night so your heater works less while you’re asleep. This way you can optimize the heater during the day and just use a space heater at night. You can also insulate your heater to help it withstand any potential damage from freezing temperatures.

tom stachler, realtor, real estate, one, ann arbor, michigan, winterizing, home, freeze, homes, houses, for, sale, dexter, saline, broker, builder, thomas

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Forecast for Some Top Developing Countries Real Estate Markets

Friday, January 8, 2016
by Tom Stachler,ABR,CDPE - Group One Realty Team

Last year was an interesting year for real estate in the emerging markets. While there were a number of challenges as a result of fluctuating oil prices, currency stability and changing investment laws in 2015, a new year brings new, exciting prospects.

But what will the next 12 months hold for developing countries and their real estate markets?

 
What will the next 12 months hold for developing countries and their real estate markets?
 

CLICK TO TWEET

 

 

 

As 2016 gets underway, global real estate platform Lamudi explores the real estate markets to watch this year.

Panoramica de Mexico DF

Panoramica de Mexico DF

Mexico City, Mexico

Forecasts from PwC expect that by 2025, Mexico City will have become the seventh-richest city in the world. This increased wealth is expected to create more opportunities for the real estate industry in the coming years. While the drop in oil prices and declination of the peso has caused challenges, Mexico’s capital city is experiencing a surge of growth when it comes to real estate.

As foreign investment increases, and more companies turn their attention to the city, the office market goes from strength to strength. According to Knight Frank, 52 million square feet of modern office space is scheduled for delivery within the next three years.

Quezon City, the Philippines

By 2025, Quezon City is expected to have a population of almost four million. Metro Manila’s largest and most populous city had the greatest volume of online search traffic between January and June 2015, according to Lamudi’s onsite data.

Search volume for the city grew, on average, 22 percent per month during the same period. The online real estate platform’s data also reveals the city has the most affordable office space to Rent, with an average price of Php503.79 ($10.73 US) per square meter per month.

Nairobi, the capital city of Kenya

Nairobi, the capital city of Kenya

Nairobi, Kenya

Kenya has made a name for itself in the startup and technology sectors; Nairobi has become a hub for global and local corporations looking to enter these booming industries and take advantage of the opportunities East Africa has to offer. As a result, the commercial and residential real estate markets are booming.

Industry professionals expect this to continue in 2016. While international entrepreneurs are settling in Kenya’s capital, population growth is also expected to boost the city’s real estate market in 2016; as more Kenyans enter the job market and disposable income increases, we can expect more money to be spent on housing.

Night view of Mandalay cityscape with famous Fort or Royal Palace. Myanmar (Burma) travel landscapes and destinations

Night view of Mandalay cityscape with famous Fort or Royal Palace. Myanmar (Burma) travel landscapes and destinations

Mandalay, Myanmar

Tourism is booming in Myanmar. At the end of 2015, the Ministry of Hotel and Tourism announced plans to attract 7.5 million tourists to the country by 2020, with a seven-year master plan. As a result, Myanmar’s second city — Mandalay — is improving its infrastructure, and welcoming the construction of both small, independent and high-end hotels.

Housing in the city is much cheaper than in Yangon; however, residential and commercial real estate is in short supply. As the number of tourists to the city increases, it is expected to undergo significant development to improve the real estate options available to visitors.

Hassan II Mosque Casablanca Morocco

Riyadh

Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

This year will see the construction of a $320 million mall in Riyadh. The project will include office space, retail units, restaurants, and a boutique hotel, as well as recreational areas. The Riyadh Walk will cover 137,000 square meters of Saudi Arabia’s capital city and is considered to be a step forward in upgrading the country’s commercial mixed-use projects.

Construction is expected to boost Riyadh’s commercial real estate sector and lead to the development of more residential, commercial and industrial properties.

panorama of Kandy - ancient capital of Sri Lanka

Panorama of Kandy – ancient capital of Sri Lanka

Kandy, Sri Lanka

The removal of land Lease tax in Sri Lanka is expected to encourage non-nationals to invest in the country’s growth and development outside Colombo. As Sri Lanka’s first ‘Smart City,’ Kandy is expected to welcome an increased number of international corporations, entrepreneurs, and startups, eager to invest in the city’s growth. Consequently, the property sector is forecast to go from strength to strength over the next 12 months. Furthermore, the continued development of the Colombo-Kandy Expressway is expected to transform the city into a hub of activity, which will likely result in a surge of real estate activity.

Hassan II Mosque Casablanca Morocco

Hassan II Mosque Casablanca Morocco

Casablanca, Morocco

In 2015, Morocco ranked eighth in Cushman & Wakefield’s list of top emerging markets in the world. According to the report, the country was among the top 10 with the lowest risk to invest and open a business in real estate. Casablanca, considered the country’s economic capital, is experiencing stable rents, increased supply, and the development of large-scale commercial and office projects. The city shows great potential for both tourism and business, with the amount of office space expected to double in the next four years.

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Information about Radon in Saline and Ann Arbor Michigan

Thursday, January 7, 2016
by Tom Stachler,ABR,CDPE - Group One Realty Team

Radon Information 

​
 
January has been designated by the EPA as Radon Action Month. Unfortunately, there are many myths and misconceptions about Radon, and the topic is not widely understood by the general public.

Radon is the 2nd leading cause of lung cancer (only cigarette smoke is higher), and is a radioactive gas that results from the natural breakdown of Uranium in the ground. Radon testing is not regulated in Michigan, as it is in some states. The professionals conducting Inspections have taken Radon Testing Certification courses and understand Radon properties and testing protocols.

We have compiled a list of 5 common Radon myths and misconceptions below. For the full EPA guide, click on the following link: EPA Buyer and Seller Guide
 
Radon Myths and Misconceptions
Radon Myth #1: My neighbors tested low for Radon, so I should be OK
 
 
Facts: "You cannot predict Radon levels based on state, local, and neighborhood measurements. Do not rely on Radon test results taken in other homes in the neighborhood to estimate the Radon level in your Home. Homes which are next to each other can have different indoor Radon levels. Testing is the only way to find out what your home's Radon level is." -pg 4 of EPA doc linked above.
Radon Myth #2: My home is less than 10 years old
 
Facts: Radon levels have nothing to do with the age of your home. Radon originates from the natural decay occurring in the ground. New construction homes are just as likely to have Radon as hundred year old homes.
 
There are Radon resistant new construction techniques available, which are less expensive than installing an after-market mitigation system. Make sure to consult your builder if you plan on building a new home.
Radon Myth #3: My home doesn't have a basement, so I won't have Radon
 
Facts: As long as your home sits on the ground, Radon could be an issue - even with a slab or crawl space foundation. 
 
Testing is the only way to be certain what Radon levels you have.

Radon settles in the lowest level of your residence. Radon testing may not be necessary if: you have an unfinished basement that you do not spend significant time in; if you live in an upper level apartment or condo unit.
Radon Myth #4: I have lived here for years, there is no need to test now
 
Facts: Reducing Radon levels you are exposed to can reduce the chance of long-term harmful effects - just as a smoker that stops smoking will improve their long-term risk factors.
 
One type of Equipment used is the Radalink high end Radon Monitors for testing. The monitors are calibrated yearly by Radalink per EPA standards, and take readings for humidity and temperature during testing in order to validate the accuracy of test results. Every test is reviewed by a Radalink technician upon completion, and test results and reporting are typically available within an hour of completion.
Radon Myth #5: Radon problems cannot be fixed, and could make my home difficult to sell
 
Facts: There are solutions to Radon issues in homes. Most homes can be fixed for about the same cost as other common home repairs.
 
Radon testing is easy. Most inspectors conduct a 48 hour test with a monitor smaller than a shoe box, and tests your living area during normal, everyday living conditions.
 
Use an Inspector who is an independent Radon tester and is not affiliated with any Radon mitigation service.
 
Call us today for more information and schedule a test for your peace of mind and your family's health and safety.  Find Inspectors using the Links page under Resources tab above and look for Home inspectors link
We hope this information has been helpful. Feel free to share it with anyone you think may benefit from it. 
 
 
tom stachler, realtor, broker, ann arbor, radon, information, resources, michigan, saline, dexter, home, inspections, pricing, testing, builder, standards, houses, homes, property, purchaser, seller, scheduling, appointments
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How rising interest rates and China’s growth will affect US market in 2016

Wednesday, January 6, 2016
by Tom Stachler,ABR,CDPE - Group One Realty Team

I am always reluctant to offer predictions for the year ahead because of the arrogance involved. But, shoot, as in the gallows humor of the Eighth Air Force, “No guts, no Air Medals.”

Begin with reviewing successes and embarrassments one year ago. Two mistakes: I thought the US economy would accelerate to 3 percent growth, and saw Czar Vladimir as more dangerous than he has been. Got right: The US federal government has been inert in 2015, Europe and Japan are still no-growth messes, China did slow down, the Fed did lift off from zero, but mortgage rates ended where they began. Not bad. China was the toughie last year, and is again now.

But, looking forward now, they’re all tough. China has years of dogs and horses; 2016 is going to be the Year of the Crazy. As unpredictable as any year in my memory.

In our racket, the Fed is paramount. Fed forecasting is already crazy: The Fed says it’s going to raise the overnight cost of money by about 1 percent per year for the next three years.

Financial markets growl back: No, you’re not. Wagers are set now in markets, privately and in big trades: The Fed won’t make it far above 1 percent before having to retreat. That’s an immense disagreement.

Long-term money — bonds and mortgages — thinks long term. Duh. Next year, the bond market’s view of the future is overdue for big lurches. The wrong kind of news will dramatically change the markets’ estimate of the Fed’s course and rock mortgages a quarter-percent or more over a weekend. Crazy means volatile. Look for overshoots and reversals. Mortgages in 2015 never rose above 4.25 percent nor fell below 3.75 percent; in 2016, the high-low range should be twice that.

 
News surprises begin with this week’s wad of December data

CLICK TO TWEET

 

News surprises begin with this week’s wad of December data, from Christmas sales to Friday’s employment and wage report, surprise magnified by the holiday down-time.

“The wrong kind of news….” The worst news for us would be any combination of these: accelerating gains in US wages, rising US inflation, or US jobs stubbornly gaining 200,000 or more each month. Any one of those would force markets to reconsider its Fed-doubt. Burned last year, now I think US GDP (gross domestic product) will not accelerate, but it’s those Fed-sensitive components which matter.

Crazy 2016? CRAZY!?! Donald Trump, and the other dozen all trying to flank each other on the right. Donald freakin’ Trump. Every one of them promising faster US growth, more jobs and higher wages. What’s-her-name, too. The Fed says we’re growing too fast now. Yellen: “We don’t need more than 100,000 new jobs each month.” The Fed is on track to tighten at least three times before the election. This group of candidates is not a bright lot, but do we think they won’t notice the Fed?

Do I want to see Yellen get the Trump treatment? See the Fed politicized as never before? Great.

Then look outward. Every day the US is more sensitive to overseas economies. Japan has been in deflation and recession for so long that we’re used to it. Nobody owns its bonds except itself. An exceedingly unlikely recovery might do some harm outside, but stick with exceedingly unlikely. Europe has been the biggest help holding down our rates. An unexpected recovery there would hurt, raising rates there and ending the attractiveness of our bonds, but the euro currency should prevent anything but occasional lifelike twitching.

 
Every day the US is more sensitive to overseas economies.

CLICK TO TWE

 

In 2015, China took over from Europe as most important. It has slowed more than anyone thought, collapsed commodity markets and the nations exporting the commodities. China will still grow, but its growth now will be destructive to the rest of us, new money for internal stimulus sourced by predatory exports. A true revival in China would help the world and hurt rates, but that’s going to happen only via reform.

China’s reforms are stymied by internal contradiction: no one ever has found a way to modernize by repression, or to liberalize by censor, or to innovate by edict.

Be glad we’re here, crazy and all. Happy New Year!

 

tom stachler, real estate. one, michigan, broker, homes, for sale, Lease, property, houses, homes, mortgage, rates, future changes, china, overseas, markets, broker

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Ann Arbor Real Estate Market Update

Tuesday, January 5, 2016
by Tom Stachler,ABR,CDPE - Group One Realty Team

Click the Links above for access to New Listings

October 2015 home price index:

  • The Home price index for October 2015 was $254,000.
  • New York, Tennessee and Texas hit new peaks in October.
  • Connecticut saw the most negative monthly movement.

BKFS_HPI_Oct2015_US_hi_res

Mortgage rates:

 

Home equity rates:

 

Last week’s most recent market news:

National Association of Realtors’ Pending Home Sales Index for November 2015:

    • The pending home sales index declined by 0.9 percent to 106.9 in November
    • This is 0.9 percent below October’s index but 2.7 percent above November 2014.
  • The November annual gain was the smallest since October 2014.

First American’s Loan Application Defect Index for November 2015:

    • The defect index fell 1.3 percent month-over-month in November 2015.
  • The index fell 8.2 percent year-over-year in November 2015.
  • The defect index for refinance transactions was down 2.9 percent month-over-month, 10.7 percent year-over-year.

Federal Housing Finance Agency’s November 2015 mortgage index:

  • The national average contract mortgage rate for previously occupied homes was 3.85 percent, down from 3.89 percent in October.
  • The average interest rate on all mortgage loans was 3.86 percent, down from 3.90 percent in October.
  • The average loan amount for all mortgage loans was $319,800, up from $308,600 in October.
National Average Contract Mortgage Rate for Previously Occupied Homes Nov 2014 - Nov 2015

National Average Contract Mortgage Rate for Previously Occupied Homes Nov 2014 – Nov 2015

Freddie Mac’s Multi-Indicator Market Index (MiMi):

  • The national MiMi value stands at 81.9.
  • This is 0.59 percent up from September to October 2015.
  • This also indicates a 6.31 percent year-over-year increase.
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